Every year, biologists forecast how many salmon will  return to the different watersheds in the Pacific Northwest.  They base their predictions on a variety of factors including  smolt release numbers, ocean temperatures, and fishery testing,  though having so many variables lowers the reliability  of these estimates. In spite of this, several 2009 predictions,  including one from the Pacific Fishery Management  Council, suggest that 2009 may be one of the strongest  years of late for salmon returns throughout the northwest.

Initial reports from fishing guides on southwest Vancouver  Island also indicate that the area is in for a banner year.  Catch numbers and fish-size show the most promise in  seven years. Since charter operators who fish these offshore  banks intercept most of the salmon runs headed south,  potentially catching fish from dozens of different rivers in  the same morning, they gain a strong understanding of  salmon trends. These guides note that generally, when the  early season gets off to a slow start, the rivers continue to  experience smaller run sizes through July. Conversely, when  fishing is productive by late May, the Canadian fishing fleet  has learned to expect a very productive year.

Sam Vandervalk, of Salmoneye Charters, reports that  King salmon fishing for 2009 has been spectacular for May  and June, which indicates that the area should continue to  have strong runs throughout the season. "We haven't seen  fishing like this since 2001," Mr. Vandervalk says, "and  2001 was a very, very good year." According to his fishing  reports, boats are consistently catching limits of 10-25  pound fish, unusual for early June. He credits the good  numbers in part to the Canada-US salmon treaty which was  ratified a few months ago. Also, commercial salmon allocation  numbers have been greatly reduced on both sides of the  border, so this should mean more returning Chinook  (Kings) and Coho (Silvers) for the ocean angler.